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NFL Week 3 odds: How to bet Saints-Panthers
September 23, 2022
An NFC South showdown in Week 3 of 2022 NFL season.
The New Orleans Saints travel to North Carolina to face the Carolina Panthers at 1 p.m. ET Sunday at Bank of America Stadium
The Panthers enter this game without a win after another painful loss, this time against the New York Giants. While the defense held Saquon Barkely to 72 yards and sacked Daniel Jones three times, the offense was stale. Baker Mayfield completed 14 of 29 throws for 145 yards and a touchdown, and the Panthers offense converted just two of 12 third downs. For this team to go anywhere, Mayfield will have to produce.
The New Orleans Saints are 1-1 after a 20-10 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2. Jameis Winston threw three interceptions in the fourth quarter and that’s all she wrote. Winston continues to go for the big game over short, easy routes, and as they go, the Saints go. Hopefully this weekend, one of those quarterbacks can produce for four full quarters.
Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective for the Saints-Panthers game, point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert opinions (odds via FOX Bet):
RELATED: Week 3 lines, odds
Saints @ Panthers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
Point spread: New Orleans -3 (Saints favored to win by more than 3 points, otherwise Panthers cover) Money line: New Orleans -162 favorites to win(bet $10 to win $16.17 in total); Panthers +125 underdogs up for grabs (bet $10 to win $22.50 total) Over/under total score: 40.5 points scored by both teams combined
The Baker’s Panthers start the season at 0-2, time to panic? | THE CARDBOARD SHOW
There were high expectations for several NFL teams for the start of the season, but one thing many did not expect was the Carolina Panthers to be 0-2 at the end of Week 2. .
Warren Sharp, sports betting analyst at FOX:
Baker Mayfield has been blitzed on 33% of his first downs in the first three quarters, the fourth highest blitz rate in the NFL this year.
And it receives pressure at the 10th highest rate (36%).
On early downs, when Mayfield is blitzed, he ranks #20 in EPA/att (-0.09).
But when not blitzed, he ranks 11th in EPA/att (+0.11).
And Baker has long had massive divisions against pressure and without pressure. Since 2020:
Vs pressure: -0.62 EPA/att, 25% pass, 5.8 YPA
No pressure: +0.27 EPA/att, 51% success, 7.6 YPA
Unlike in years past, this Saints defense is simply not under pressure. They don’t blitz either.
New Orleans blitzes on just 8% of QB drops, which ranks 30th.
And they are pressured at a rate of 9.9%, which ranks dead last in the NFL (avg=30%).
Last week, the Bucs played without several offensive line starters and several starting receivers. And the Saints, playing at home, still have the lowest rate pressure in the NFL.
If that holds and the Saints struggle to pressure Mayfield and blitz as infrequently as they have, it will be a huge change for Mayfield.
In Week 1, Mayfield faced his former team, the Browns.
They rank 6th in pressure rate this season, registering pressure on 36% of opponents’ drop rates and have a league average blitz rate.
In Week 2, Mayfield played against the Giants.
They rank fifth in blitz rate this season (37%) and have a pressure of 27%.
Mayfield was blitzed and under a ton of pressure in his first two games with the Panthers.
Now he’s playing at home against a team with the No. 32 pressure rate and No. 30 blitz rate?
It’s certainly not an easy defense to play against, but there’s a way to imagine Mayfield can do a little better without pressure. And if he doesn’t and fights again, the Panthers will host the No. 31-ranked Cardinals defense next week in what should be his last chance to deliver for the Panthers or likely cost Matt Rhule his job. as the next three games will include the Bucs, Rams and 49ers.
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